IMF: Euro zone may face prolonged period of anemic growth and inflation

IMF: Euro zone may face prolonged period of anemic growth and inflation

IMF releasing views on the EU

  • Euro zone may face the long period of anemic growth and inflation
  • sees GDP growth of 1.3% and inflation at 1.3% 2019
  • rising risks for euro zone economy, especially trade tensions, impact of Brexit, Italy’s debt woes
  • under shooting of euro zone’s inflation objective calls for prolonged monetary accommodation
  • EUROs real exchange rate as slightly undervalued, urges Germany, other trade surplus states to invest more
  • ECB’s intention to maintain ample accommodation for longer is vital
  • ECB should short maturity of new TLTROs, offer less generous pricing terms than on TLTRO II to avoid banks increasing their sovereign exposure
  • possible tiered deposit rate would have very small impact on aggregate bank profitability and questionable impact on credit conditions
  • direct costs of negative rates are likely to outweigh by their positive indirect effects on aggregate demand and bank profitability
  • if further accommodation required, ECB should consider new asset purchase program anchored by P and possibly broaden to larger set of assets
  • ECB may have only limited room to cut interest rates
  • further credit easing measures could be considered, including new cheaper liquidity facilities for banks
  • multiple money laundering breaches at EU banks at urgency to centralized supervision


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