Technical Analysis

AUDUSD moves back down and breaks below the Asian session low

Low at 0.6971 for the AUDUSD.

The AUDUSD is just cracking below the Asian session low at 0.6971. The price is trading at 0.69698 currently.  

Looking at the 5 minute chart above, the price bounced off the Friday low and in the process moved back above its 100 and 200 bar MAs. The high today reached the 50% of the move down from Friday at 0.69925 (the high reached 0.69935 and backed off).

The pair moved back below the 100 and 200 bar MA (blue and green lines in the chart above) and a topside trend line.  Staying below the MAs and trend line, gave the sellers to “go-ahead” to move back down.

Looking at the hourly chart below, the price is approaching the 38.2% of the move up from the June 18 low at 0.69646. That level was broken on Friday and failed. It will take another break below (and stay below) for sellers to take more control (and be taken more seriously).  

Below that the 0.6953-57 is home to swing levels from July 1, July 2 and on Friday as well. THe 100 bar MA on the 4 hour is also at 0.6953. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour is at 0.69464.  There are lots of downside targets to get to and through.

So sellers are in control, but there is work to do on the downside to get more downside participation. 

AUDUSD on the hourly chart

PS helping the bearish bias is the pair did fall below and away from the 100 day MA on Thursday and Friday last week after a brief break above. That MA comes in at 0.70276.  The price also moved below and away from its 100 and 200 hour MS (blue and green lines) at 0.7006 and 0.6998 respectively.  All are more bearish breaks and it will take moves back above to switch the bias more to the upside now. 


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