Technical Analysis

EUR/USD inches to fresh two-week low, US jobs report still holds the key

EUR/USD falls to a low of 1.1260


Price is slowly inching lower on the session amid a firmer US dollar, with sellers now testing the 100-day moving average @ 1.1260. There is also minor support seen closer at 1.1250 alongside a decent-sized expiry of around €625 million.

That doesn’t help the single currency’s plight but the move we’re seeing for the most part in the European morning is a dollar move with Treasury yields now also inching a little higher on the session. 10-year yields are up by 1.3 bps to 1.963% currently.

It’s all related to positioning movement ahead of the US jobs report later and that will still be the key deciding factor for what drives price action later in the day. While the pair may be holding at fresh two-week lows now, let’s see if the fundamentals will reaffirm a move lower here or call for a change in sentiment to end the week.

The risk towards the downside will be the key daily support at 1.1260 from the 100-day moving average. Meanwhile, the risk towards the upside will be the key hourly moving averages above with the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1290 and the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1330; 200-day moving average also seen @ 1.1332. In between, the 1.1300 handle will also prove to be a key area of interest so do keep an eye on that.

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