Technical Analysis

Gold trades to new session highs. Moves away from MA levels on the hourly chart

Up over $30 on the day now.

Earlier today, the price of gold got a kick higher on all the headlines about Pence and Russia, etc.  That was the excuse/story for the move higher in gold earlier.

Technically, that run got the price above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at $1401.75 and $1404.88 respectively (blue and green lines in the chart above).  In an earlier post, I outlined that move and commented “Stay above is more bullish”.

The price “stayed above” and we are now seeing more upside momentum.  The tag line to stay above remains in play going forward. Those MAs are close risk on the hourly now.  

Helping the run higher was the low reached yesterday.   Staying on the hourly chart above, the last run higher in the contract based on June 11. The 50% midpoint of that run higher came in at $1379.57. The low yesterday, bottomed above that level (low was $1381.90). Bullish. Buyers leaned and the price fall stalled.     

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the move lower yesterday (as mentioned) stalled at $1381.90. That was just above the:

  • Broken 38.2% retracement at $1380.59, and 
  • Also above the swing highs from 2016, 2017 and 2018 (2016 high reached $1375.34 which was the highest high of those years).  Keeping above those levels yesterday, was a good hold too for the bulls/buyers. It helps to keep a bigger run higher in play for the bulls.  Going forward, traders will not want to see the price moving back below the multi-year ceiling levels.  

As a result, not only is the move off the hourly bullish (above 100 and 200 hour MAs), but the longer term break higher last week remains in play.  It will take a move below the 200 and 100 hour MA on the hourly (close risk on the hourly now – call it below $1400), AND a further move below the $1375.34 swing high level from 2016 (off the daily chart) to start to hurt the bullish story now.  

  

Gold on the daily chart
The next target would be the high from yesterday at $1423 and the high from last week at $1439.  Above that and traders will be eyeing the 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2011 high at $1483.80 (on the daily chart).  That is near the May 2013 high at $1488 increasing the areas importance.  

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