Technical Analysis

The threat of the SNB continues to keep the franc at bay for now

The swissie is the weakest performing major currency today


Of note, EUR/CHF has climbed back above the 1.1100 handle after hitting lows of 1.1062 earlier in the day and came close to testing last week’s low of 1.1057. Price is holding just above the 1.1000 level now and the region here is where the danger lies for those betting on further appreciation in the franc.

As price trades at levels last seen since July 2017, it’ll no doubt raise some alarm bells at the SNB that they may very well have to step in periodically to prevent the franc from appreciating too much, too fast.

There’s only so much they can do to fight against market sentiment amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions and when you couple that with a slowdown in the global economy, there’s reason for markets to be more risk averse and stick to haven demand in 2H 2019.

As such, they can help to smooth the process of franc appreciation if the above theme plays out but they certainly wouldn’t be in a position to fully counteract it. But whenever we approach levels like we’re seeing in the above chart, expect market participants to also be wary of potential SNB intervention and choose to book profits instead.

That is perhaps what is happening with the franc today amid month-end and quarter-end flows as well this week.

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