Technical Analysis

USD/CHF shorts were the best FX trade this week

What were the biggest market movers this week

The US dollar was beaten up this week on the dovish turn from the Fed. It wasn’t the only central bank that pointed to more easing and the outsized move reflects just how crowded dollar longs have become.

The winner this week is the funder — the Swiss franc. As other central bankers move closer to zero rates that narrows the yield spread. If risk aversion kicks up, you would also see carry trades cleared out.

USDCHF chart technical analysis

Technically, there is a lot to like on the chart. The uptrend since March 2018 is broken. It was retested last week, held and has now broken down further.

There is also a rough head-and-shoulders top. The measured target on that is 0.95 or 97, depending on how you want to draw the neckline. The higher target would also dovetail with the January low.

I like shorts in this pair but I don’t think the time is right for fresh selling. Look for a bounce to sell sometime after the G20.


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