Technical Analysis

Is this really the ‘moment of truth’ for the US dollar?

Jeff Gundlach thinks it is

Fledgling bond king Jeff Gundlach tweeted about the US dollar index late yesterday, saying it was the moment of truth as it flirted with the 200-day moving average.

it’s continued modestly lower today but hasn’t yet broken the June low. Technically, this truly is a ‘moment of truth’ because the 200-dma has been significant in the past and there is also a double top at 98.50 that’s a potential top.

DXY chart

Even if it does break down, there are a few more hurdles to cross before you can confirm the top, but that’s the nature of a turn at the end of a massive bull market.

Gold, meanwhile, is a much clearer case of a ‘moment of truth’ as it makes a clear break to a five-year high above multiple areas of resistance.

But when you pair the DXY up with the fundamental developments and CFTC data showing an extremely crowded trade, the case for selling the dollar strengthens.


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