Technical Analysis

USDJPY in the middle of a bunch of chop

100 bar MA on 4-hour doing a good job of stall the up chop

The USDJPY is near of the middle of a bunch of chop.  

Last week, the low to high trading ranges was about 65 pips. This week near the midpoint of the trading week, the range is 67 pips. 

To give you an idea, the range last week was the 3rd lowest range going back to 2014. Is it possible to have back-to-back non trending weeks?  I would bet on an extension one way or other.   

Of course the FOMC decision is key and honestly, the smartest play would be to play a breakout (assuming we stay contained until then).  

What levels are key?

Looking at the hourly chart, this week and last week are somewhat symetrical. The difference si last week, there was an extension above that failed. This week, there was a break lower that failed (see red shaded areas).   The chops defined ceiling comes in at 108.70 -715 area.  The chops more defined floor comes in at 108.16.  A break above or break below, should solicit more momentum in the direction of the break. 

Any interim levels of importance?

The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 108.576. That MA line, has been stepping lower and this week – apart from a quick failed break on June 18 – has been a stall point from rallies on Monday, Tuesday and again today.   A move above will have traders looking for the price to stay above and go for the high ceiling area.

What above the extremes from last week and this week?

The extremes at 108.80 last week and 108.05 this week will simply be other targets needed to be broken to get this pair out of it’s chop.  Traders may lean against the levels on the first test, but watch the corrections off. There could be modest corrections before resuming the directional break move.  

Risk on a test  of high at 108.80 and bounce might be the “ceiling” at 108.71 minus 5 or so pips.  

On the downside, risk on a test of 108.05 would be the “floor” at 106.16 plus 5 or so pips.  

The USDJPY is trading in bunch of chop, but after being in narrow trading ranges for all of last week and 1/2 of the current week, look for a breakout to give the uncertain market the next directional clue.  


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