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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD moves higher on tariff hope

Forex news for NY trading on June 10, 2019

In other markets, a snapshot is showing:

  • Spot gold is tradng -$12.52 or -0.93% at $1328.28
  • WTI crude oil is down -$0.67 or -1.22% at $53.35
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading up $248 at $7967.38

In the US stock market, the major indices closed higher, but near the session lows as well. So although higher, the indices may have to work off some overbought conditions after the 5 day run higher. The Nasdaq index moved above its 50 day MA intrade but closed below that MA at the close.  The major European indices also closed higher on the day.

US debt yields moved up in trading today after on Friday, the 10 year yield got within shouting distance of 2%. Today, the 10 year yield traded higher and is closing at session highs at 2.1466, up 6.6 bps. The other points on the yield curve were also higher today.

US yields are ending higher on the day (and near session highs).

In the forex, the USD is ending as the strongest currency of the majors. However, in the NY session, some of the earlier gains coming into the NY session were erased. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF all came off of higher US levels in the NY session.  Versus the AUD and NZD, the USD kept most of it’s gains.

The % changes of the major pairs

There was little in the way of economic events. The JOLTs job openings was the only US release. It stayed near high levels indcative of a strong jobs market (if you have a lot of job openings it implies employers are having trouble filling the needs). 

Pres. Trump had a surprise call-in to CNBC where he gave his views on tariffs (“tariffs are a beautiful thing”), expectations for a deal with China, and got a dig in on the Fed, saying that the Fed is very “disruptive to us”.  

Technically for the some of the major pairs:

EURUSD. The EURUSD fell to a low at the 1.1289 level in the London morning session but could not reach quite that low in the NY session. So the pair did rally but stalled against resistance at the 1.1323 level. The pair is closing around 1.1311. Stay below the 1.1323, and there is more rooom to run on the downside in the new trading day.

USDJPY.  The USDJPY gapped higher on the weekend US/Mexico weekend news and higher stocks and yields but ran into some profit taking after the pair could not sustain the price above its 200 hour MA (at 108.549). The price fell and made it to a new session low, but stalled the fall at the 100 hour MA at 108.315 in the NY afternoon session. Buyers leaned, the price is trading at 108.42 into the new trading day.  Stay above the 100 hour MA, will keep the buyers a little more in control, but moving back above the 200 hour MA is essential (at 108.545). l

GBPUSD. The GBPUSD recovered higher in the NY session and in the process, it too ran into the 100 hour MA. For it the 100 hour MA comes in at 1.27027. The high for the NY session reached 1.26943. Stay below in the new day is more bearish.  On the downside, the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 1.26786 and below that the 200 hour MA is at 1.26684.  

AUDUSD. The AUDUSD traded lower but up and down in the NY session. Having said that, the pair is closing near the session lows but also near a cluster of support in the 0.6955 to 0.69599 area (trading at 0.6859 currently).  Buyers are leaning against the level but not getting too far on the rebound. If the level holds, a move back toward the 100 hour MA at 0.6980 is the next target. On a break below, look for selling to intensify.

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