Analysts at TD Securities continue to view 1.75% as the top of the cycle for the Bank of Canada, but do not think they will capitulate to a market pricing in cuts.
“Since April, we have seen a stabilization in domestic data which has helped to reduce some of the downside risks to the Canadian economy. Q1 showed a large rebound in both nonresidential investment and consumption, even if net exports did weigh heavily on headline GDP. And the labour market continues to defy gravity with over 450k jobs created in the last twelve months.”
“We have also seen some green shoots in the housing market and core inflation remains near target. While this should give the Bank of Canada some comfort in its current policy stance, it is not enough to return the Bank to a hiking path.”