Technical Analysis

EURUSD holds the 1.1305 trend line so far.

Staying near session highs

The EURUSD spiked above a trend line connecting highs from January (the same line is on the daily and the 4 hour chart below). That trend line comes in at 1.1305. 

The price spiked above that line on the back of the employment data, and corrected to test that level after the report and held (the low reached 1.1306).  Bulls still in control.

On the topside, the pair has run into some topside resistance against swing highs (see yellow area in the 4 hour chart above between 1.1323 to 1.1331). The 50% retracement of the move down from the January high (range for the year) is at 1.1338.   The high price has stalled at 1.1326 so far.  Bulls/buyers (who are in charge) will be looking for a move above each of those levels to give even more bullish confirmation.  THe 200 day moving averages up at 1.13679 today and would be a target on more upside momentum. 

The Fed cut calls are coming out.  Citi is saying that they see a 50 bp cut in September and could see a 25 bp cut in July (not sure if that reduces the 50 to 25 in September).  

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