Technical Analysis

10 year yield runs into some key support

And natural support at the 2.00% area.

The 10 year yield traded to the level since Septembe 8, 2017.  The low yield for the day reached 2.0517%.

Technically, the note is starting to test a key support area defined by the:

  • 61.8% retracement of the move up from the July 2016 low yield at 2.0596%
  • Swing low from September 8 at 2.0144%
  • Natural support level at the 2.00%. 

The yield has bounced off the low as traders take some profits against the risk defining level. We currently trade at 2.0844%, down -3.3 bps on the day.  

Drilling to the hourly chart below, the low today took out the low from Monday at 2.0590%.  The day started above the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 2.1096%.  A move back above that MA (a trend line is also near the level) will be eyed by traders looking for more confirmation that a temporary bottom is in place.  Above the 100 hour MA, and traders will be eyeing the 2.1452% high for the week, and the falling 200 hour MA at 2.1739%. Those levels should give traders cause for pause as traders ponder the Fed (and other macro trends).  

10 year yield on the hourly chart.


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