Technical Analysis

EURUSD falls to 1.1200 after rate decision, then rebounds to new session high

Down fast, then back up

The EURUSD fell to a new session low of 1.1197 on the ECB headlines, but quickly rebounded and traded to new session highs. We currently trade at the session high. The pair is rallying on back of the ECB not setting the best rate for the TLTRO (i.e. at the deposit rate. The best rate is set at the deposit rate +0.10 bps or -30 bps).   Rate guidance was moved to mid 2020 from the end of 2019. 

Technically, the pair has the 100 day MA ahead at 1.1272 (and just touched that level as I type). That MA stalled the rally on Tuesday.  Yesterday, the price moved above it on two separate occasions, only to fail each time.  Traders should lean against the level with stops on a move above.  Draghi will speak at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. 


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