Technical Analysis

NZDUSD consolidates after standard correction peak stalls rallies

Correction runs to 38.2% retracement

The NZDUSDs fall from the April 30th high to the low last week at 0.64811 was trend like. Down. Down. Down…

Since then, the pair has moved above a downward sloping topside trend line, then the 100 hour MA (blue line). That 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) was tested before moving higher.  That was bullish.   The 200 hour MA (green line) was the next hurdle and it was taken out on Friday (more bullish).

A high was made yesterday at 0.65585. That level was a smidgen below the 38.2% retracement at 0.65587 level.  Stalling at the 38.2% is a “plain vanilla” correction of trend move.

Today, the high made another run at making it something different than “plain vanilla” but the run stalled at 0.65579. 

The buyers can’t make the break and make the move higher, something better.  Sellers are leaning. It will take a  move above that “plain vanilla” correction level to change the mind of sellers.  

Until then,on the downside watch the 0.6539 level and then the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 0.65287 and 0.65275 respectively.  If those MAs are tested and hold, there could be a  greater argument to go higher (and through the 38.2% retracement).  For one, the 100 and 200 hour MAs are both looking to tilt to the upside (the 100 hour MA is already rising). If each level is successively broken, the correction would be confirmed as simply a “plain vanilla”  correction of a trend move lower.   

The levels are in place.  

ForexLive

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