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US Dollar Index struggles for direction near 97.30

  • The index trades without clear direction near 97.30.
  • Yields of the US 10-year note gyrate around 2.44%.
  • US-China trade talks remain in centre stage.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. its main competitors, has started the week on a cautious tone around the 97.30 region.

US Dollar Index focused on trade talks

The index is looking for direction after two consecutive daily pullbacks, always vigilant on developments from the US-China trade negotiations.

In fact, recent talks in Washington between US and Chinese negotiators yielded a bit of optimism and a lot of caution. Despite talks will continue in Beijing – no date yet – the White House could impose tariffs on all imports of Chinese products in early August if China does not make some concessions.

In the data space, no publications are scheduled today although Boston Fed E.Rosengren (voter, centrist) and FOMC’s R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish) will speak at the Fed Listens Event. In addition, Atlanta Fed R.Kaplan (2020 voter, dovish) will speak at a Community Forum in Texas.

What to look for around USD

The centre of the debate for the greenback has shifted to the US-China trade dispute, although a high degree of uncertainty as well as caution among investors seem to prevail for the time being. On another direction, the lack of traction in US inflation – and concerns among Fed members – is currently weighing on the buck and threatens its constructive view. Dips in the greenback, however, are seen shallow as overseas weakness, the safe haven appeal, favourable yield spreads vs. the Fed’s G10 peers and the status of global reserve currency keep the positive outlook on the index unchanged.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.02% at 97.35 and faces the next hurdle at 97.53 (21-day SMA) seconded by 98.10 (high May 3) and finally 98.32 (2019 high Apr.25). On the flip side, a breach of 97.13 (low May 10) would aim for 97.08 (55-day SMA) and finally 96.75 (low Apr.12).

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