Australian Q1 CPI is due Wednesday 24 April – preview

Official inflation data due from Australia on this week, for Q1 2019. 

  • Due on 24 April 2019 at 0130GMT

Core inflation has been running below the RBA target band for many, manufacturing quarters but the bank seems unconcerned about this.

Despite their long, long run of misses on this mandate the Bank had this to say in the April minutes:

  • rate cut would be “appropriate” if inflation stayed low, unemployment trended up

So, I guess we keep on watching inflation (and unemployment)!

ANZ on what to watch for (bolding mine):

  • A sharp fall in petrol prices is the largest negative for the headline figure, as in the prior quarter. 
  • Our forecast for core inflation is broadly consistent with what the RBA published in its February Statement on Monetary Policy. If core inflation for the quarter comes in at 0.3% or below, a rate cut in May is a real possibility, in our view.


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