Technical Analysis

Gold falls to 12-day low

Gold down $9

Gold broke through last week’s low of $1321 as it sinks to a session low and the worst since February 15.

The US dollar is getting a broad lift from rising Treasury yields and month-end flows. Gold isn’t responding to turmoil in India-Pakistan and is at the tail end of a long seasonal run up.

Technically, the break below the Feb 21 low clears the way for a fall back to $1302, especially if we see a close down at these levels. The risk is that the India-Pakistan battle flares up further or a heavier round of risk aversion hits and pushes US yields lower.

I hate to bail on a great trade around month end but the plan was to be long gold on the seasonal upswing and it’s been a wonderful three-month run. I sold 80% of my gold long last week and this break takes me out of the rest. See you next year for the Dec-Feb rally.


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